Friday, July 10, 2009

2009 Defensive End Impact Rookies

Going into the 2009 draft all the scouts and experts believed that the defensive end/ 3-4 rush line backer group had the best potential. What scared most of the experts was that many of the prospect were tweeners, not big enough to be 4-3 ends, not fast enough to be 3-4 backers. In order to get a better picture of what to expect from the rookies I decided to break up the ends and rush linebackers into two seperate groups, so here are my top five defensive end rookies.
1)Brian Orakpo-Redskins-Texas-13th overall
2)Tyson Jackson-Chiefs-LSU-3rd overall
3)Everette Brown-Panthers-FSU-43rd overall
4)Aaron Maybin-Bills-PSU-11th overall
5)Lawrence Sidbury Jr.-Falcons-Richmond-125th overall
Sleeper 1)Jaron Gilbert-Bears-San Diego State-68th overall
Sleeper 2)Michael Johnson-Bengals-Georgia Tech-70th overall
The team who made the biggest headlines this off-season was undoubtly the Washington Redskins. Signing Albert Haynesworth will be the biggest contributing factor to the impact that Orakpo is expected to have. Haynesworth is expected to draw double teams allowing Orakpo to be singled up with left tackles letting him to use his power to get to the quaterback. On draft day Orakpo fell mostly due to questions on his potential in a 3-4 scheme, because he struggled with dropping back in college, letting the Redskins pick up probably the best overall end prospect. Staying home at his area of the field is Orakpo's best quality. He well not bite on play action or end arounds. I expected that he will put up around eight sacks for the Redskins if he can stay healthy. As well as durability issues he needs to work on his change of direction, Orakpo has a bright future in the NFL.
As the only possible 3-4 end on the list Tyson Jackson might not be able to put up the biggest numbers, but he allows the Chiefs to ease into their switch from 4-3 to 3-4 be being able to play both end techniques. Using his high motor Jackson is able to get into the backfield as well as getting downfield to catch ballcarriers. Jackson's impact in passing situations well be batting down balls, and occuping blockers for their rush backers to get to the quaterbacks. The best attribute of Jackson's game is his first step quickness which pushes the pocket and often disrupts plays. The number one area Jackson needs to work on is developing a repertoire pass rushing moves. As well as the pass ruch moves, gainning weigth to be able to take on double teams will benefit him greatly.
Playing on the opposite side of Julius Peppers will allow Everette Brown to use his pass rushing skills to get to the quaterback. When Brown enitred the draft he was predicted as a first round propect, even as high as a top 15 talent. That is what made it even more surprising that he fell all the way to the 43rd overall pick. As pass rushing goes he is arguably the best in the draft, but he lacks the ideal size for an every down end in the NFL. The most athletic end in the draft, with his strength he is able to hold up against the run despite his size. Makes plays in space which is rare for defensive ends, he even contain the skills to unleash devastating hits on ballcarriers causeing turnovers. What scared scouts about Brown, other than his size, was that FSU pass rushers have notoriously struggled in the NFL. I do not believe this willaffect Brown, he will face not face double teams, and will be able to beat tackles with both speed and power.
After the scouting combine many scouts grew fearful of drafting Aaron Maybin, he is smaller than most linebackers, and ran slower than expected. Before the draft experts had no idea where Maybin would end up, some had him in the top ten, some had him in the third round. At the number 11 pick the Bills took a chance on Maybin, hoping to put more pressure on the quaterback, something they struggled to do last season. Coming out as a redshirt sophmore, Maybin falls under the catagory of potential "one year wonders". In his rookie season Maybin will probably only play in pass rushing situations. I expect him to put up about five to seven sacks which is exceptional as a rookie. The Bills are hoping for him to contribute his first season, then for him to add about ten pounds to his frame, giving him the size to play every down. What scres me about Maybin is that most of his success came from just running around tackles, he needs to work on pass rush moves and lower body flexiablility if he wants to have success in the NFL.
Being the lowest drafted player in my top five, some people may be surprised to see Sidbury, some might not know who he is. A star at the division two level many scouts predicted Sidbury as a sixth or seventh round pick. With standout performances at both the Shrine game and the Senior Bowl his stock soared. Like Maybin Sidbury will most likley be a situational pass rusher during his rookie season. He has room to add muscle mass that could make him an every down end. Using his great reconigition skills he can both bull rush and speed rush quaterbacks. Sidbury could dramatically increase his pass rushing by working on his first step quickness and anticipation of snap counts. Sidbury could become a better run stopper if insted of running around blockers, engage them and shed the blocks. I expect him to have four to five sacks this season, maybe even less since the Falcons lack a dominant pass rusher.
Both of my sleepers are cases of tremendous talen and athleticism versus poor work ethic and desire. At the start of the college fottball season Michael Johnson was projected a top five pick. He put up huge numbers at the scouting combine but his play on the field was average. If Marvin Lewis can motivate Johnson some how, he could possiable drafted the best defensive end in this year's draft in the fourth round. In the case of Gilbert he flashed his potential at time while playing at San Diego State, but did not show the consitiancy you want to see especially at that level of competition. Like Johnson, Gilbert also had a great showing at the scouting combine, which boosted his stock. Playing on a team like the Bears will let Gilbert time to refine his skills, and maybe reach some of the limitless potential he has yet to use.

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